Video: CBOE Volatility Index – Fact & Fiction Part 4

Watch Part 4 of CBOE’s Fact & Fiction five part educational series, where Doug Prskalo of Blue Capital Group discusses the direction the S&P 500 and  VIX move in and how traders use the VIX.

Webcast – Volatility: Strategies for Diversification and Risk Management

Title: Volatility: Strategies for Diversification and Risk Management
Date: March 27, 2012
Time: 2:00 PM EST

1 CFP CE Credit

Register Here

What is volatility? How is it measured? What strategies can advisors use to manage risk and control swings in portfolios? Learn the answer to these questions and more as Tom Lydon, Editor of ETF Trends; Ed Egilinsky, Managing Director, Head of Alternative at Direxion; and Frank Luo, Vice President, Global Head of Index Research & Design at S&P Indices examine volatility and its impact on investment strategies including:

  • Why volatility matters in portfolio management
  • How to potentially manage volatility in client portfolios
  • Ways to decrease volatility exposure through ETFs

One hour of CFP Board CE Credit is approved for live Webcast attendees. For questions, call 949.794.0070.

New VVIX Index Measures the Volatility of Volatility

Bonita Springs, Fla., March 14, 2012 – Today CBOE introduced the new “VIX of VIX® Index (ticker: VVIX(SM)). www.cboe.com/VVIX

The new VIX of VIX Index tracks the expected volatility of the CBOE Volatility Index® (the VIX® Index), the world’s most widely-followed market volatility index.

VVIX reflects the market’s consensus of expected volatility of the 30-day forward price of the VIX Index.  The VVIX Index offers investors a way to gauge the risk premium in VIX Index option prices, much like the CBOE’s VIX Index reflects the risk premium in S&P 500® Index options (SPX) prices.

The VVIX White Paper at www.cboe.com/VVIX made the following points:

  • The range of values of the VVIX is at a significantly higher level than that of the VIX.    The VVIX has ranged between 60 and 146, with an average of 86. The VIX ranges between 10 and 81 around an average of 24. The range of variation of the VVIX tends to widen at higher values of the VIX.
  • Except at high values of VIX, there is little correlation between variations of the VIX® and VVIX. The VVIX and VIX® both reached local peaks in October 2008, during the credit crisis of 2008 and in May 2010, the “flash crash” month. In general however, the relationship between their variations is weaker than the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500.
  • Since the flash crash of May 2010, the VVIX has rarely dropped below 80.  This suggests that a new volatility regime came about after the flash crash. Market participants appear to have become more tentative about the future value of the VIX®.
  • The VVIX tends to revert to its historical mean.

HISTORIC VOLATILITY OF VIX (SPOT) INDEX AND OF VIX NEAR-TERM FUTURES

Note that in 2011 the historic volatility was 139.9% for the VIX (spot) index, and 97.0% for the VIX near-term futures.  VIX options investors often look at the VIX futures prices (not VIX spot) to gain a better idea of the fair value of VIX options.  Please visit the FAQs at the VIX microsite at www.cboe.com/VIX for more information.

HISTORIC VOLATILITY OF VIX (SPOT) INDEX SINCE 1990

Using the end-of week values of from Bloomberg for the 22-year period from Feb. 9, 1990 through Feb. 3, 2012, here are some key statistical measures for the 30-trading-day-historic volatility of spot VIX —

Maximum       245.0

Minimum       34.4

Average         93.1

Median           86.2

VIX OPTIONS – PUTS AND CALLS

VVIX is calculated using the same methodology as the VIX Index.  VVIX is derived from the price of a portfolio of out-of-the-money VIX option puts and calls.

The average daily volume for VIX options rose from 93,181 in 2007 to 388,845 in 2011.

For more information on the new VVIX Index, please visit www.cboe.com/VVIX

VIX of VIX – an Update on Volatility of Volatility

Just as an update on my February 24th post on the Volatility of Volatility, the CBOE has announced the launch of an index that tracks the volatility of VIX itself, the VVIX.  The VVIX is calculated using the the same methodology as the VIX index, using VIX Options to calculate the volatility of VIX.

While my recent post on the “Volatility of Volatility” addressed the realized volatility of VIX, VVIX represents the expected volatility of the 30-day forward price of VIX.  This forward price is the price of a hypothetical VIX® futures contract that expires in 30 days.

As calculated by CBOE, the VVIX ranges between 60 and 145 with an average of around 86, while the VIX Spot values range from 10 to 81 with an average of 24.  Refer to the chart below.

This points to the relevance of looking  at the volatility of volatility and CBOE’S new index provides users with another way to easily access this information.  For additional information, please visit www.cboe.com.

New Paper on Key Tools For Hedging and Tail Risk Management

Bonita Springs, FL – March 12, 2012 – Today Mr. Mitch Boraz, Senior Consultant at the Asset Consulting Group of St. Louis presented a new paper — “Key Tools for Hedging and Tail Risk Management” — at CBOE’s 28th Annual Risk Management Conference (RMC) www.cboermc.com

The study, the second of two ACG papers commissioned by CBOE, compares the performance of “traditional” indexes with the performance of five strategy benchmark indexes that use index options or VIX® futures.

Below is some key information from the new paper..

Please visit www.cboe.com/benchmarks for links to papers by consulting firms.

Here are main highlights of the study:

  • Left Tail Risk in the Past 25 Years: The study showed that over the past 25 years, the worst monthly loss for the S&P 500 Index was a decline of 21.5 percent, compared to a decline of 28.2 percent for the S&P GSCI (commodity) Index, and a relatively modest 8.6-percent monthly decline for the CLL Index.
  • Tail Risk and Diversification in 2008: In 2008, the S&P 500® Index declined by 37 percent; the VXTH Index (with an allocation to stocks and VIX options) declined by 19.3 percent; and the VXMT Index increased by 83.9 percent.
  • Lower Volatility: The CLL Index has incurred about 70 percent of the volatility of the S&P 500 over the last 26 years. Select portfolios with the VXTH and the futures-based indexes have had less volatility than the S&P 500 over the last 70 months.
  • Enhanced Returns for Portfolios: Portfolios with small allocations to the futures-based indices and the VXTH had higher returns and lower volatility than the S&P 500.

Note the annual performance for various indexes in 2008 and in other years.

Please visit www.cboe.com/benchmarks for links to papers by consulting firms

Video: CBOE Volatility Index – Fact & Fiction Part 3

Watch Part 3 of CBOE’s Fact & Fiction five part educational series, where Daniel Deming of Stutland Equities discusses the VIX as a 30-day forward looking measure of volatility and shares some of his strategies.

Recent Increased Interest in Risk Management with VIX-based Products

While the VIX Index has been below 24 so far in 2012, and the VIX closed at 16.80 last Thursday (Feb. 23), the trends in trading volumes in VIX-related products indicate that there could be more recent interest in using VIX-related products for purposes of risk management for investor portfolios.

The average daily volume for the VIX call options, VIX futures, and some of the VIX-based exchanged-traded products (ETPs) is more than 55% higher this month than it was in the previous four months (see table below)

This month the VelocityShares Daily 2X VIX Short-Term ETN (TVIX) had an average daily volume of around 21,887,000, but in the past week Credit Suisse announced that it had temporarily suspended creations of shares of the TVIX ETN.

TABB GROUP REPORT ON VIX TRADING

The Tabb Group recently issued a 20-page paper “VIX Trading: The Structure of Uncertainty” (available for purchase). Tabb summaries of the paper on the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) noted that —

“ …VIX trading quite literally exploded over the past few years. The notional value traded of VIX products grew at an ear-piercing 5-year compound annual growth rate of 131% from 2006. … the S&P 500 volatility market reached an estimated 202 million average daily notional Vega (gross): SPX Options (75 million); VIX futures (48 million); VIX Options (39 million); VIX ETPs (30 million); and SPX Variance Swaps (10 million). …

http://bit.ly/Tabb-VIX-2012-1 http://bit.ly/Tabb-VIX-2012-2

WHAT ARE EXPECTATIONS FOR FUTURE LEVELS OF VOLATILITY?

A February 22 news story at www.wsj.com noted:

“… current VIX levels also show that traders expect stocks to dart around far more in the future than they have over the last month. The realized volatility of the S&P 500 over the last 30 days stands at about 8%, its lowest level since May, according to data from Livevol. That means traders are paying more for portfolio protection despite the placid markets. …”

The chart below shows a large spread of 9.3 points on February 23rd between the VIX Index spot value (16.80) and VIX June ’12 Futures price (26.10)

The webpage www.cboe.com/VIX provides a table delayed quotes with updates on the VIX and VIX futures values. Here is the table at mid-day on Feb. 24 —

UMASS STUDY ON VIX FUTURES AND OPTIONS AND DIVERSIFICATION

The paper “VIX Futures and Options–A Case Study of Portfolio Diversification During the 2008 Financial Crisis” was published in 2009 by an author from the University of Massachusetts.The paper found that, for a traditional portfolio of stocks, bonds and alternatives during the five-month time period from August through December 2008, if an investor made a 10% allocation to CBOE VIX futures–

– Total returns were improved by 15.7 percentage points (improvement to -4.0% from -19.7%)

– Standard deviation was reduced by about one-third (to 16.3% from 25.3%)

Please visit the VIX microwebsite www.cboe.com/VIX for the UMass study on use of both VIX futures and options.

The Volatility of Volatility: High

In a recent podcast, I was asked about the sharp spikes and steep drops in VIX levels and what that reflected; I was able to get through that with minor scars, but it got me thinking about the volatility of Volatility. Below are a couple of charts that tell the story.

Chart 1 displays the daily total returns of S&P 500, S&P 500 VIX Short-term Futures and VIX Spot indices. As is evident, it looks like white noise, but it also illustrates that swings in daily returns for the VIX Futures and VIX spot indices are more dramatic than those for S&P 500 and that implied volatility is more responsive to market sentiment.

Chart 2 illustrates the annualized rolling 21-day realized volatility for the three indices; demonstrating that the volatility of implied volatility is extremely high. In fact, over this time period (Dec ’05 thru Jan’12) the VIX futures index was 3 times as volatile as the S&P 500 and the VIX spot over 6 times.

Video: CBOE Volatility Index – Fact & Fiction Part 2

Watch Part 2 of CBOE’s Fact & Fiction five part educational series, where Jamie Tyrrell of Group One Trading discusses the VIX, whether it indicates fear or uncertainty and what it means when the VIX “heads down.”

Managing Brazilian Volatility with Futures and Options on the VXEWZ Index

Over the next five years, some projections indicate that the annual GDP of Brazil could surpass that of both France and the United Kingdom, and that Brazil could rise to become the fifth largest economy in the world.

More investors now are concerned with the issue of managing Brazilian volatility.

Today CBOE Holdings announced today that the following products will be launched in the coming weeks:

  • CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index security futures (VXEW) – Tuesday, February 21 on CFE
  • CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index options (VXEWZ) – Tuesday, March 6 on CBOE www.cboe.com/VXEWZ

STOCK INDEX PRICES SINCE 2000



30-DAY HISTORIC VOLATILITY
Since February 2001, the average 30-day historic volatility has been about 25.6 for the MSCI Brazil Index and 18.9 for the S&P 500 Index.

30-DAY IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Some analysts prefer to look at real-time updates of implied volatility indexes that are designed to reflect intraday customer sentiment.

CBOE calculates and disseminates the CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index (ticker VXEWZ), which reflects the implied volatility of the EWZ ETF. www.cboe.com/vxewz

The price history for the VXEWZ Index begins in March 2011. The peak daily closing value for the VXEWZ Index was 63.49 on Oct. 3, 2011.

At mid-day today (Feb. 17), the VXEWZ Index was at 30.89 and the VIX was at 18.14.


Delayed quotes table is updated at http://www.cboe.com/micro/VIXETF/VXEWZ/

CORRELATIONS

As noted in the table below, the daily changes in the VXEWZ Index had a negative 0.85 correlation to those of the EWZ ETF during the time period covered.

TRADABILITY AND FUTURES AND OPTIONS

If you believe that the VXEWZ Index is mean-reverting, and you believe that there is a good chance that VXEWZ might rise significantly in upcoming weeks or months, four strategies that you might consider in the future include –

  1. Long VXEWZ call options
  2. Long VXEWZ call spreads
  3. Short VXEWZ put credit spreads
  4. Long VXEWZ futures.

Before investing in any volatility-based product (futures, options, or ETP), please do your homework regarding the unique pricing of volatility-based products. You can visit http://www.cboe.com/micro/VIX/vixintro.aspx for some information regarding pricing, and http://www.cboe.com/micro/VIXETF/VXEWZ/ for more information on the VXEWZ Index.

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