Technical Outlook: VIX Showing Complacency. Really?

We find it amazing how many times the markets, the media, and many, many analysts are always waiting for that next crucial data point. And when that “important” data point or speech finally arrives, it turns out so many times to be a non-event. When the news is bad, but the market rallies, the spinsters find some reason for the surprising rally. When the news is good and the market falls, well you know. As we have said many times, price leads the news, and we continue to believe that the stock market is poised for a large move higher during the next couple of months. Over the past couple of weeks, the major stock indices as well as many individual stocks have paused or pulled back very quietly, and it appears to us that they are setting up for the next leg higher. Quiet, listless markets are not signaling a market top, but rather a refueling before the next fireworks begin.

So far, the S&P 500 has seen a very minor pullback to its 13-day exponential moving average. During fluid moves higher, this is many times all you get as far as a decline. In addition, the “500” has only retraced a minor 23.6% of the rally since July 24, which is the minimum pullback in an uptrend. On the intraday (30- and 60-minute) charts, it appears that the index completed a small three-wave decline, and may be set to lift off. On the daily chart, we have only seen one wave down, which, in our view, is reminiscent of many pullbacks during the third wave of an advance. The key upside chart resistance for the near term is the 1,420 region, and we believe a strong break above this area opens up the possibility of a rally to 1,500+ over the next two months, and toward all-time high territory in the first quarter of 2013.

The VIX, a measure of market expectations of near-term volatility based on option prices of the S&P 500, is closing in on a sell signal, which equates to a buy signal on the stock market. A sell signal on the VIX consists of three steps, with the first and second being a close outside the standard Bollinger Bands, and then a close back inside the bands. The third step is a lower close on the VIX than the close of the day that the VIX first finished back inside the bands. If things stay as they are, the first two steps will have been tripped.

We get quite amused when we read and hear comments on the VIX, as many times they are just flat-out wrong. There are many saying that the recent VIX readings of near 15% (currently 17.4%) are signaling complacency. Well, what does this mean? The options market is saying that there is a 2/3 chance that the S&P 500 will either rise or fall by 15% over the next year. This equates to a rise to 1,621 or a decline to about 1,200. That range of price expectations doesn’t really seem complacent to us. Furthermore, we think the analysts who are calling the recent readings complacent are not really looking at enough history, but selectively recalling the three spikes in the VIX that have occurred over the past four years. So yes, the current VIX is of course much lower than the levels during the 2008/2009 bear market, and below the levels during the pullback in 2010 and the major correction in 2011. But it is still a lot higher then it was during parts of the 1990s bull market as well as the 2003 to 2007 bull market. During those bull runs, the VIX dropped to 10 and stayed low for considerable periods of time. Some of the best gains during recent bull markets have come with a VIX reading below 15. So, if we continue to trade in at least a cyclical bull market and perhaps transition to a secular bull market as we have projected, we actually think the VIX could be way overvalued, and showing too much fear.

 

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This report is for information purposes and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Neither S&P Capital IQ nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its usage. Redistribution is prohibited without written permission. Copyright © 2012 by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. “S&P”, “S&P 500”, and “Standard & Poor’s” are registered trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All required disclosures and analyst certification appear on the last three pages of this report

Barron’s News Story — Fund Based on VXTH Index

An August 28th news article at http://blogs.barrons.com stated —

“First Trust To Launch VIX ‘Tail Hedge’ Fund.  The rise of volatility trading products continues. First Trust Advisors is set to launch what it’s calling the First Trust CBOE S&P 500 VIX Tail Hedge Fund on Thursday … The fund will trade under the ticker VIXH. Here’s the link to the prospectus

This CBOE blog is for informational purposes, and CBOE and S&P Dow Jones Indices do not do solicitations or recommendations for exchange-traded funds.

Please read the fund’s prospectus which notes that “The Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield, before the Fund’s fees and expenses, of an equity index called the CBOE VIX Tail Hedge Index.”

CBOE VIX TAIL HEDGE INDEXSM (VXTHSM)

The VXTH Index tracks the performance of a hypothetical portfolio that –

  • Buys and holds the performance of the S&P 500® index (the total return index, with dividends reinvested), and
  • Buys one-month 30-delta call options on the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX)®. New VIX calls are purchased monthly, a procedure known as the “roll.” The weight of the VIX calls in the portfolio varies at each roll and depends on the forward value of VIX, an indicator for the perceived probability of a “swan event”.
  • The weights are determined according to the schedule below and the weights applied at a particular roll date can be seen by opening the VXTH Monthly Roll Spreadsheet at http://www.cboe.com/VXTH/

PAPER ON HEDGING AND TAIL RISK MANAGMENT

Key Tools for Hedging and Tail Risk Management is a paper by Asset Consulting Group (February 2012).  Key highlights from the paper include:

  • Tail Risk Over 25 Years: Since mid-1986 the worst monthly declines for select indexes include: down 28.2% for the S&P GSCI Index, down 21.5% for S&P 500, down 20.2% for MSCI EAFE, and a decline of only 8.6% for the CLL Index (Exhibit B).
  • Risk and Diversification in 2008: Changes for indexes in 2008 – S&P 500® down 37.0%; two indexes with options and stocks – CLL Index down 23.6% and VXTH Index down 19.3 (Exhibit A).
  • Lower Volatility: The CLL has incurred about 70% of the volatility of the S&P 500 over the last 26 years. Select portfolios with the VXTH had less volatility than the S&P 500 over the last 70 months (Exhibits C, F, and O).

More papers and benchmark index information are available at www.cboe.com/benchmarks

Two of the Exhibits from the paper are below.

LINKS TO ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Volatility indexes  www.cboe.com/volatility

CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) (with put-call ratios, CFE, charts, bibliography, etc.)  www.cboe.com/VIX

CBOE Risk Management Conference in Ireland – Sept. 5 – 7 2012 www.cboermc.com/Europe

 

Asset Consulting Group (ACG) is an investment consulting firm which provides a full scope of investment advisory services to a select group of clients. The Chicago Board Options Exchange® (CBOE®) provided financial support for the ACG paper. The CBOE S&P 500 indices are designed to represent proposed hypothetical strategies. The actual performance of investment vehicles such as mutual funds can have significant differences from the performance of the hypothetical indices. Like many passive indices, the indices do not take into account significant factors such as transaction costs and taxes. Investors attempting to replicate the indices should discuss with their advisors possible timing and liquidity issues.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Standard & Poor’s®, S&P®, and S&P 500® are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and are licensed for use by the CBOE. CBOE and Chicago Board Options Exchange are registered trademarks of the CBOE, and the CBOE indices are servicemarks of the CBOE. CBOE calculates and disseminates the indices. The methodology of the indices are owned by CBOE and may be covered by one or more patents or pending patent applications. The information contained in this report is based on information obtained by ACG from sources that are believed to be reliable. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

Low-cost Protection — One Year After VIX Peak

AUG. 9, 2012 — A year ago, on August 8, 2011, the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) closed at 48.00, its highest closing value since March 9, 2009.

Yesterday, on August 8, 2012, the VIX closed at 15.32 (a level that was 68% lower than the year-earlier level).

Yesterday Reuters published an article is entitled “Time may be ripe to buy low-cost option protection.” The article noted that now could be a good time for investors to explore the possibility of buying SPX puts or VIX calls for protection.

PUT OPTIONS ON THE S&P 500® INDEX (SPX)

The Reuters article noted that —

“ …The summer months are often a slower period, when many traders head for the beaches and volatility typically wanes before the historically volatile months of September and October.   This is often reflected in the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX … ‘Now is a good time to buy downside puts on the S&P 500 index because they can increase in value if the market falls and if volatility moves up,’ said WhatsTrading.com options strategist Frederic Ruffy. …”

According to Bloomberg, with the S&P 500 Index at around 1400 on the morning of August 9, 2012, for the SPX options expiring in 44 days on Sept. 22, here are rough estimates of implied volatilities –

  • around 18 i.v. for the SPX 1300 puts,
  • around 16 i.v. for the SPX 1350 puts,
  • around 14 i.v. for the SPX 1400 puts.

Out-of-the money SPX puts often have higher implied volatilities than at-the-money SPX puts because of the SPX skew and demand by investors for portfolio protection.

Here is a 13-month chart for the VIX Index, which can provide some clues to the price of SPX options.

VIX CALL OPTIONS FOR PROTECTION

The Reuters article also noted —

“…’A similar trade would be to buy VIX call options which are also cheap right now,’ said Bill Luby, a private investor who writes the “VIX and More” blog in San Francisco. ‘VIX call options will increase in value if the market has a sharp downward correction or investors view there is more risk on the horizon.’ …”

One tool that can be helpful to VIX options investors is the CBOE VIX of VIX Index (VVIX). www.cboe.com/VVIX The VVIX Index is an indicator of the expected volatility of the 30-day forward price of the VIX®.

Here is a chart showing the past 13 months of VVIX daily closes — 

OPTIONS AND FUTURES ON VOLATILITY INDEXES

CBOE offers options on four volatility indexes —

VIX – CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) Options
GVZ – CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index Options
VXEEM – CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index Options
VXEWZ – CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index Options

The CFE offers futures on a number of volatility indexes, including VIX, OVX, NDX, GVZ, VXEEM, and VXEWZ.  http://cfe.cboe.com

LINKS FOR MORE INFORMATION

 

Apple Earnings Fall Short, as VXAPL Index Closes at 34.34

Tuesday, July 24  –  Apple, Inc. announced its quarterly earnings today.  Bloomberg news noted —

“Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s profit and sales fell short of analysts’ projections for only the second time since 2003 as customers held off on iPhone purchases while waiting for a new model to be introduced later in the year.  …   The iPhone is Apple’s biggest source of revenue. ‘Every quarter that Apple isn’t launching a new iPhone it’s a transition quarter,’ said Brian Marshall, an analyst at ISI Group. “That’s the key product that matters.”  Apple, the world’s largest company by market value, fell in extended trading. …” www.bloomberg.com

IMPLIED VOLATILITY OF AAPL OPTIONS

Investors who use AAPL options to manage risk and enhance income can check intraday updates of the CBOE Equity VIX on Apple (VXAPL) www.cboe.com/VXAPL to gain a better understanding of changes in AAPL implied volatility. Th eVXAPL closed at 34.34 today.

ONE-WEEK CHART OF VXAPL INDEX www.cboe.com/VXAPL VXAPL

SPREAD BETWEEN VXAPL AND VIX INDEXES

In the chart below, note that the spread between VXAPL and VIX indexes can vary substantially.  For example, on Nov. 3, 2011, the VIX was slightly higher than the VXAPL Index, while yesterday, the VXAPL closed at 34.82 and VIX closed at 18.62.  The average spread between the VXAPL Index and VIX Index has been about 10.3 points.   VXAPL and VIX

AAPL STOCK SINCE MID-1986

AAPL’s stock price reached daily high closing prices of 144.19 on March 22, 2000, and 636.23 on April 9, 2012.

 

 

 

 

 

 

VXAPL MICROSITE

For more information about the VXAPL Index, please visit www.cboe.com/VXAPL

VIX Up 12.6%, as 20 Vol Indexes Rose Today

Monday, July 23 — While many stock indexes plunged today, twenty of CBOE’s volatility indexes rose.  Visit www.cboe.com/volatility to see a list of indexes with updated delayed quotes.

Here is a list of percentage changes for some volatility indexes on July 23 –

  • 12.6%       VIX® – CBOE Volatility Index®  www.cboe.com/VIX
  • 6.3%         VVIX – CBOE VIX of VIX Index  www.cboe.com/VVIX
  • 5.1%         OVX – CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index  www.cboe.com/OVX
  • 8.0%         GVZ – CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index www.cboe.com/GVZ
  • 12.9%       VXEEM  – CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index www.cboe.com/VXEEM
  • 5.6%         VXSLV – CBOE Silver ETF Volatility Index  www.cboe.com/VXSLV
  • 10.4%       VXFXI – CBOE China ETF Volatility Index  www.cboe.com/VXFXI
  • 12.3%       VXEWZ – CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index www.cboe.com/VXEWZ
  • 3.7%         VXAPL – CBOE Equity VIX® on Apple  www.cboe.com/VXAPL
  • 8.2%         VXGOG – CBOE Equity VIX® on Google www.cboe.com/VXGOG

Today’s % changes for two of S&P’s VIX futures indexes were —

  • 8.3%         S&P 500 VIX Short-term Futures Index (TR)
  • 3.9%         S&P 500 VIX Mid-term Futures Index (TR)

COMPARING VIX SPOT AND VIX FUTURES

In a table at www.cboe.com/VIX on July 23rd with delayed quotes, the VIX spot index rose 2.35 to 18.62, while the VIX Aug. futures rose 1.63 to 20.78. 

BIGGEST ONE–DAY VIX % MOVES OVER THE PAST YEAR

Below is a list of the 11 trading days over the past year (July 23, 2011 – July 23, 2012) on which the VIX Index had daily moves of more than 15% up or down.   Interestingly, the VIX had 10 up-moves of more than 15%, but only one down-move of over 15%.  Delayed quotes for VIX spot and futures prices are at www.cboe.com/VIX.

  • 8-Aug-2011         50.0%
  • 4-Aug-2011         35.4%
  • 18-Aug-2011       35.1%
  • 9-Nov-2011         31.6%
  • 10-Aug-2011       22.6%
  • 31-Oct-2011        22.1%
  • 17-Oct-2011        18.2%
  • 21-Jun-2012       16.5%
  • 1-Nov-2011         16.1%
  • 6-Mar-2012          15.6%
  • 9-Aug-2011         -27.0%

LINKS TO ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

  • Volatility indexes  www.cboe.com/volatility
  • CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) (with put-call ratios, CFE, charts, bibliography, etc.)  www.cboe.com/VIX
  • VIX Strategies        http://www.cboe.com/micro/volatility/strategies.aspx
  • Papers on Income Enhancement and Tail Risk Management  www.cboe.com/benchmarks
  • CBOE Risk Management Conference in Ireland – Sept. 5 – 7 2012 www.cboermc.com/Europe

 

 

“Drought” Options – Implied Vol Up 50% This Month

A recent Reuters news report indicated that “Grain prices pushed to record highs on Thursday as scattered rains in U.S. Midwest did little to douse fears that the worst drought in half a century will not end soon or relieve worries around the world about higher food prices.  Government forecasters did not rule out that the drought in the U.S. heartland could last past October, continuing what has been the hottest half-year on record.”

What can securities investors do about the 2012 drought?  Investment vehicles that investors could explore include options on agriculture-based exchange-traded products (ETPs) (CBOE is not endorsing or soliciting for the products below; please read the applicable prospectus.)

RISE IN IMPLIED VOLATILITY THIS MONTH

According to Bloomberg estimates, the implied volatility for the “110%-moneyness” options on the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) rose from 16.6 at the end of June to 25.2 on July 19th (an increase of 52%). See the chart below for more info on recent implied volatility, and note the recent differences in implied volatility for DBA options based on their moneyness.  Ag Implied Vol

 

PRICES FOR AG-BASED ETPs RISE

As shown in the chart below, over the past seven weeks (May 31st through July 19th) the iPath DJ-UBS Grains Subindex ETN (JJG) rose 45%, and the Teucrium Corn Fund ETF (CORN) rose 35%.

Ag ETF prices

 

OPTIONS ON ETFs

Key Features of U.S-exchange-listed options include:

  • Clearance of transactions is guaranteed by the Options Clearing Corporation
  • Price and Quote Transparency
  • Daily Mark-to-market

Bullish options strategies include: (1) long call, (2) bull spread, (3) call backspread, and many others.

Bearish options strategies include: (1) long put, (2) bear spread, and put backspread, and many others. To learn more about  options strategies, please visit —

http://www.cboe.com/Strategies, and

http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter

More information on options on Commodity-based ETFs is at —

http://www.cboe.com/commodity

Broad commodity based indexes include the S&P GSCI Index and the S&P World Commodity Index (WCI).

VXEEM Y-T-D Futures Volume Tops 41,000

Some investors have asked us about managing exposure with products based on volatility indexes in addition to the well- known CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) www.cboe.com/VIX

Trading volume in CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index (VXEEM) security futures totaled 8,870 contracts during June 2012, and is more than 41,000 year-to-date.  The VXEEM Index tracks the implied volatility of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index exchange traded fund (EEM).  VXEEM futures trading was launched on January 9, 2012.   www.cboe.com/VXEEM

The CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX) measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility of crude oil prices by applying the VIX methodology to United States Oil Fund, LP exchange traded fund (USO) options.  OVX security futures were launched for trading on March 26, 2012.   www.cboe.com/OVX

www.cboe.com/volatility

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABB – Buy-side is Expanding Use of VIX-related Options

TABB Group recently issued a buy-side trading study, “US Options Trading 2012: Standing Out in the Crowd,” written by Mr. Andy Nybo. For this year’s 39-page study, TABB noted that it spoke with 54 US-based asset managers, hedge funds and proprietary trading firms, which as a group, manage an aggregate $2.7 trillion in assets under management and trade an average of 517,000 options contracts per day. 

Mr. Nybo said that buy-side firms are –

“ … expanding their product selection to include more VIX-related, ETF/index and listed FLEX options.”

Please visit this link – http://bit.ly/TABB-Opt – for summary of highlights from the report and more information on how to purchase the entire 39-page study.  Please note that CBOE is not soliciting for or endorsing the purchase of the full report written by a third-party.

 +++++++++++++++++

 GROWTH IN VIX OPTIONS VOLUME

 CBOE reports that the average daily volume for options on the CBOE Volatility Index®(VIX®) was 428,220 in the first half of 2012 (12% higher than the 381,412 average daily volume in the first half of 2011) www.cboe.com/VIX

VIX listed options began trading in 2006

VIX Futures Volume is Up 67% This Year

Average daily volume for futures on the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) rose in the first half of this year to 79,586 (67% higher than the average daily volume in the year 2011).  www.cboe.com/VIX

79,586 Avg. Daily Volume in 1st Half of 2012

 

VIX OPTIONS

 Average daily volume for VIX options was 428,220 in the first half of 2012.

Avg. Daily Volume of 428,220 in 1st Half of 2012

 

NEW FUTURES ON THE OVX and VXEEM VOLATILITY INDEXES

Trading volume in CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX) security futures totaled 3,290 contracts in June 2012, an increase of 65 percent from the 1,994 contracts in May.  The CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index measures the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility of crude oil prices by applying the VIX methodology to United States Oil Fund, LP exchange traded fund (USO) options.  OVX security futures were launched for trading on March 26, 2012.   www.cboe.com/OVX

Trading volume in CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index (VXEM) security futures totaled 8,870 contracts during June 2012.  VXEM tracks the implied volatility of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index exchange traded fund (EEM).  VXEM trading was launched on January 9, 2012.   www.cboe.com/VXEEM

For more information on volatility indexes and risk management, please visit www.cboe.com/volatility

Performance of Selected Tradable Volatility Indices: June 2012

The S&P 500 Index rose 4% in June 2012, and VIX dropped 29% from 24.06 (5/31/2012) to 17.08 (6/29/2012).

The S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures Index and the S&P 500 VIX Mid Term Futures Index dropped 29.05% and 12.24%, respectively. The S&P 500 Dynamic VIX Futures Index, however, managed to stay nearly flat (-0.58%), due to its algorithm to dynamically reduce volatility exposure in a bull market. The S&P 500 VIX Futures Term Structure Index gained 3.01%.

The S&P 500 Dynamic VEQTOR Index saw a muted growth of 1.74% in June. Its volatility is low at 12.54%, compared to the 20.57% volatility in the 500.

Click the image to see it in full size.

Exhibit: Performance Summary (6/29/2012)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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